Thập kỷ mất mát của Nhật Bản: Cú nổ bong bóng tài sản 1990 và bài học 34 năm trả nợ

[Music] [Applause] [Music] ah 1980s Japan Tokyo was growing into a sprawling Metropolis reaching upwards into the sky and outwards as far as the eye could see if you stepped into Tokyo's fashionable Ginza or rongi District at the time you'd see the place alive with vibrancy and a touch of Mayhem its nightscape was a carnival of success and ambition bars pubs and nightclubs overflowed with the exuberant the extravagant and the ecstatic Neon Lights flickered like the heartbeat of Japan's booming economy the party goers caught in the Head Rush of Japan's post-war economic miracle through money like confetti for them money flowed like sake abundantly and unceasingly and why not their country had finally made it in the two decades from 1955 Japan's economy exploded by a staggering 435 so much so that it's been termed the Japanese Miracle period suddenly and seemingly out of nowhere the island nation was the most Innovative and productive country in the world and the second largest economy just behind the US by the 1980s made in Japan no longer meant cheap Novelties now it was a stamp of high quality and Innovative products Brands like Toyota Sony nisson and Mitsubishi became household names at the peak of Japan's economic boom eight of the world's largest banks were all Japanese and they held a combined total of over 2.3 trillion nura Securities had the financial resources to purchase all of the major banks on Wall Street by the end of the 1980s Japan's economic prowess had reached dizzying Heights with soaring stock markets and skyrocketing real estate values Japan's land at just a fraction of the size of the United States was valued at four times more the Imperial Palace in Tokyo alone was deemed more valuable than the entire State of California and it wasn't just the partyo in Tokyo everyone around the world felt the Japanese Revolution it seemed like the sun would never set on the Land of the Rising Sun yet almost as quickly as the party started it all came to a screeching halt on the first day of 1990 doubts about the market spread and share prices started to fall over the next 2 and 1/2 years they dropped 63% when the 1990s rolled in the economic bubble finally burst the aftermath was devastating millions of people lost their savings and their jobs companies and Banks went bankrupt it was so so bad that till this day Japan's economy has never truly recovered it's been infamously stagnant ever since and it's given birth to a period called The Lost decades birth rates slowed young people in Japan aren't getting married and because of this their population is aging so what exactly went wrong in this episode we'll dive into the exciting roller coaster ride and collapse of the biggest economic bubble in modern history we'll also take a look at its profound effects on an entire generation you are watching P Fusion [Music] TV back in 1960 Ty magazine came out with a feature Story the cover showcased a Japanese Phoenix ascending From the Ashes In the backdrop of the Phoenix you'd notice shiny new factories massive vessels and skyscrapers it's quite the symbolic picture of Japan's so how do you go from a war ravaged country to an economic Powerhouse in just a couple of decades well that's a huge Topic in of itself so I'm just going to touch on a few major points here so you get an overall idea after the second world war the US was the most dominant economic force and they needed a success story in Asia to prove that capitalism could work outside the West so with that in mind they plan to turn Japan into a giant of exports and Industry in 1949 they set the Japanese currency the Yen super low against the US dollar this would make Japanese Goods cheap for the Americans Japan's economy was so small back then that the US could absorb all the Imports or so the US thought at the time they were unaware that making Japanese Goods irresistably cheap would backfire but we'll come back to that later trust me it's a real doozy anyway after the end of the American occupation in 1952 Japan experienced the period of exponential growth averaging 10% for two decades up until the early 1970s their costeffective and motivated Workforce along with heavy industrialization policies and the r of the ketu system were key drivers think of ketu as a club where independent companies band together to share resources and protect themselves from outside competition it creates a strong coopertive relationship it's a bit like a cartel but nicer if one company struggles others can help them out if another company needs expertise others will come and lend a hand this system became the Cornerstone of Japan's post-war economy Japan's Central Bank the bank of Japan also played a huge role in all of this they had a policy called window guidance it wasn't as complicated as it sounds but basically they quietly nudged commercial Banks to lend money into key sectors like ship building electric power coal and steel production all of these sectors were vital for Japan's economic development by doing this they aimed to get more investment flowing ramp up production and get the economy busted ironic looking back on it because nowadays we just print money all right and finally to tie this all up Japan went all in on exporting they turned the global market into their playground the 1964 Tokyo Olympics provided the perfect platform to introduce this new Dynamic resurgent Japan and show it off to the [Music] world the 1980s were undoubtedly the Pinnacle of the Japanese economic [Music] by then they'd already established themselves as an economic Powerhouse their influence was felt in every corner of the global economy their Trade Surplus was at unparalleled Heights multiple times since the 1970s after a brief deficit in 1980 due to the rise in oil prices the country's Surplus surged to a record-breaking 827 billion by 1986 now remember when I said the US would later to regret their decision to help Japan well that's starting to happen now Japan's manufacturers were so successful that they were pouring cars and televisions bikes and cameras into the United States with their jobs going Americans want to strike back America is up in arms Mr speaker and it would be a mistake to underestimate our frustrations unless this warning is heed retaliation and and possibly full-blown trade Warfare lie just around the corner the United States now had to do something to stop Japan from taking over the world before Japan's record-breaking Trade Surplus in 1986 a plan was already in place to slow them down in 1985 officials from the G5 Nations that is France Germany the United States the United Kingdom and Japan met at New York's Plaza Hotel [Music] Japan finally gave in and agreed to ramp up the y valy basically they're effectively placing a self-imposed handicap on its own exporters the core idea was simple drive up the Yen and lower the dollar this would make Japanese exports to the US more expensive now hold on a second why would Japan do something like this in the first place this seems like self sabotage like a sumo wrestler trying to tackle themselves out of the ring well there were multiple factors Number One external pressure the Us and other nations were pressuring Japan to appreciate its currency and Shrink its Trade Surplus they saw it as unfair and damaging to the global economy Japan agreed to the deal in part to keep its Ally relationship with the United States intact number two internal pressure within Japan Jaan domestic Industries and consumers were pushing for a stronger yen to benefit from reduced import prices that is the strengthen their currency and make their imported goods cheaper number three economic strategy there was a belief that a robust Yen would spur structural reforms and innovation in Japan enhancing its economic competitiveness and long-term resilience by 1987 the Accord had achieved its initial goal and the United States was satisfied with the result but there was a problem the value of Japan's currency the Yen surged way more rapidly than predicted having so many exporting Industries this was a huge shock to Japan the plaza Accord was a kind of agreement which accomplished much more than everybody expected for the meeting when we went to pla meeting we are quite prepared to see substantial uh increase in Yen's value but the Yen Rose far faster than anyone expected and Japanese officials grew [Music] alarmed and that was the beginning of the end but in many ways however this is also the point where the real frenzy began worried about a downturn the panicked Japanese authorities made a fatal mistake they loosened up on credit limits and cut interest rates down from 5% they kept chopping the rates down until they were the lowest in the entire world at the time at 2.5% and they kept it steady there the plan was to boost manufacturing and increase consumer spending but the money as always ended up somewhere else when money gets cheap people go crazy with [Music] debt so borrowing money in Japan was now incredibly cheap now the system gave tremendous power to Banks needless to say because they were the ones injecting the capital into the system it also gave tremendous power to the state so the state uh controlled the flow of funds to Banks uh and influenced the way Banks allocated those funds investors took money from Banks and poured it into the real estate market causing land prices to skyro Market Tokyo was already densely populated and faced a scarcity of land which only drove prices higher the land rush wasn't limited to Big investors even farmers and small land owners found themselves sitting on a fortune with 60% of Japanese owning their own homes people felt wealthier than ever the upward Trend in land prices quickly spilt over into the stock market creating a feedback loop of inflated asset values between 1985 and 1989 stocks and land prices stored by and astonishing 240% and 245 respectively Japanese companies took advantage of accounting practices that allowed them to inflate their profits by reflecting the increasing value of their land Holdings this artificial boost in real estate wealth propped up share prices further encouraging speculation companies weren't content with just owning land many of them started jumping into speculation themselves money was now growing on trees it was getting out of control the frenzy reached such portions that many leading manufacturers such as the car maker Nissan made more money through speculative Investments than through manufacturing cars among all of these a strange Trend began to develop a golf club boom among the Japanese top Executives trading a golf club membership worth $3.5 million was just another day at the office it sounds insane but these memberships were coveted assets the whole Market totaled an astonishing $200 billion to put that into perspective that sum of trading Golf Club memberships exceeded taiwan's entire GDP and came close to matching South Korea's GDP at the time I literally laughed when I read that fact it was just Bonkers truly an era where wealth knew no bounds and the small island of Japan was now the Pinnacle of opulence Japanese businessmen trotted around the globe with a shopping list m iishi group grabbed New York's Rockefeller Center and Sony snapped up Columbia pictures in 1986 Japan bought a whopping 75% of the US government bonds for sale usually a country can't just make more money and use it to buy things from other countries but Japan could because the currency dealers didn't lower the value of Japan's currency if the dealers didn't show concern about too much money being made then the country can go on printing as much as it can to buy foreign currency Japan did what the US did back in the 1950s and 6 s back then US Banks printed a lot of money and American companies used that fresh cash to buy companies in Europe now the us could do this because their dollar was tied to gold at the time and that gave it stability for Japan it was their Trade [Music] Surplus Japan's economic bubble grew as Banks carelessly made new money without proper oversight the bank of Japan encouraged this by urging Banks to increase their lending regardless of the loans productivity from 1986 to 1989 toshishi fukai led the bank of Japan's Department that told Banks how much money to lend this was the department that was responsible for the window guidance quotas the same window guidance system that initially helped prop up the economy before was now being used to create cheap money when asked by a reporter if he planned to stop the banks from lending so much he said that the banks were just following orders from the bank of Japan we have to remember that during this time there was widespread economic excitement people had High Hopes the citizens of Japan simply thought that their nation was entering a new phase of prosperity a phase of prosperity that would last forever optimism was the real killer in many ways the authorities didn't want to stop the party everyone was making money everything's great so why worry in reality they couldn't see the risks of such aggressive lending and asset price inflation these very factors would soon come to destroy the economy of Japan [Music] by the time 1989 rolled around the cost of land in the private sector had soared to 2,000 trillion yen up from 14.2 trillion yen back in 1969 and that's when the higher ups started to take notice in 1989 they finally put a cap on the loans related to real estate interest rates went up from 2.6% to 4.25% at the end of 1989 and then settled at 6% in 1990 but the damage was was already done land and asset prices collapsed and panic ensued well it's a bleak Christmas ahead for Japan the stock market on Monday sinking to its lowest close in over 2 years last week's collapse of one of Japan's biggest food Traders was the ninth time this year that a listed company went under in 1990 alone the stock market dropped by 32% more than $2 trillion Us in value was wiped out by December 1990 then in July 1991 the window guidance was abandoned now the bankers were left almost hopeless some major kitu Banks started collapsing too now there was a risk of dragging whole entire sectors along with them on their downfall slowly but gradually everyone started feeling the heat there was a lot of collateral damage so I'm just going to give you a snapshot of what happened between 1990 and 2003 a total of 212,000 businesses declared bankruptcy over 5 million Japanese became unemployed and sadly didn't find any other jobs suicide emerged as the primary cause of death among men aged 20 to 44 during this time frame the stock market experienced an 80% Decline and it still hasn't recovered Japanese citizens had no choice but to get used to the new normal the people who built those flashy skyscrapers ended up on the streets big companies that splurged on fancy art had to sell it all off Builders who built lavish golf courses and constructed hotels on borrowed money were convicted of fraud even the Rockefeller Center had to be given back to the Americans in 1989 32 of the world's top 50 companies by market cap were Japanese today only one Japanese company Toyota remains in the top 50 of sun a shadow F A Tale of prosperity he turned to a Sommer spell the bubble burst dream shattered like glass in the wake of Japan's economic [Music] imps just like skyscrapers [Music] tall but the streets were cold family struggling stories left Untold a nation once booming now in despair caught in the grip of an [Music] economics Japanese companies used to be like tight-knit families they would give you a job for Life a roof over your head and take care of your health and retirement in return they expected you to stick with them through thick and thin but when the economy imploded even big names like Mazda had to call on Western Executives to stop the bleeding Ford took over and slashed through Mazda's Workforce only to leave 26,000 workers surviving it was a huge cultural shock and a jolt to Japan's Collective Pride the confidence that they had in their management style was shaken to the core during the hey days of Japan books were published articles were written and experts were attributing the island nation's success to high productivity and the Relentless pursuit of innovation Japanese management books became bestsellers and Western businessmen eagerly sought the wisdom from 17th century summarized strategies Japanese words like Kaizen or continuous Improvement became popular ideas worldwide but suddenly everything was flipped on its head Japan's old ways of doing things bureaucracy and lifetime employment were no longer sustainable the rigid structures that had once Ed Japan's growth became its shackles I'll give you one surprising example you'd be shocked to know that Japan which was once viewed as the most technologically advanced Nation the country that produced the world's Advanced Electronics was slow to adapt computers in its own offices the excuse for this was the complexity of adapting software to the Japanese language which has thousands of characters this is just one example of how Japan's rigid systems and bureaucracy ultimately held it back the whole situation made everyone question what being a Japanese company actually meant they had to figure out how to stay true to themselves while playing by global rules the group that suffered the most was the younger generation the ones who were poised to enter the workforce were hit the hardest in many Asian countries young people face immense pressure to become contributing members of society from a very early age Japan is no exception to that it often translates to achieving High grades securing a good job pursuing higher education and and maintaining a respectable family life so think about all the young people who suddenly saw no future for them the pressure to succeed coupled with a lack of opportunities in the last decade created a sense of hopelessness among the young the traditional path in life education career marriage and family seemed Out Of Reach for many this led to increased rates of social withdrawal with some individuals becoming heikim Mori hii kimori is a Japanese term that means social withdrawal we've covered them before in our cold fusion loneliness epidemic video they are shuttin and they choose to live their lives indoors without interacting with anyone from the outside world sometimes they don't even leave their rooms for months or years for the families with Aiko Mori children the condition can have a huge impact I met a father we'll call him Mr haruto whose son became withdrawn as a teenager and two decades later still barely leaves his room I don't know how to handle this it feels like there are no options even after the boy's mother died he didn't change so I don't foresee any hopes for the future so why is your son in his room I don't know the reason one day he just stopped going to school at first he would go out sometimes to buy comic books and then he just stopped going out all together we didn't know what to do there are two or three times we had to call the police because my son got violent once he smashed the window another time he punched my wife and BR ribs in one estimation by the cabinet office of Japan there are 63,000 middle-aged and elderly shuttin in the country right now this means that they grew up during the last decade a lot of them are still living with their aging parents mostly detached from society between 1991 and 2003 Japan's GDP growth was only 1.14% the following decade from 2000 to 2010 showed a similar Trend it was just 1% and this growth is extremely anemic when compared to other developed countries Japan's Journey has never been without its fair share of Tremors quite literally an earthquake so strong it literally shifted the Earth's axis by about 25 cm that tsunami reached 23 ft high in some places nearly twice the height of me standing on Chris's shoulders for example and that wall of water is primarily the cause of a death toll that is in the hundreds but is certain to rise with 88,000 people in Japan still unaccounted for the tohoku earthquake and tsunami followed by the Fukushima disaster in 2011 shook Japan's very foundations these disasters took a hefty toll on the nation 10 years have passed but here time has stood still frozen at 2:46 p.m. the exact moment a massive earthquake struck Northeastern Japan and led to one of the worst nuclear disasters of all time the 2008 financial crisis and recent pandemic have further increased Japan's debt the economic stagnation over the decades has had a KnockOn effect on society itself today Japan stands as one of the most rapidly aging Nations on the planet a sizable slice of the population is now over 65 and thanks to low mortality rates and enviable Longevity this demographic is only set to grow you can say it's kudos to the nation's Healthcare and healthy living but it's a challenge for the future how will the diminishing young population grow up to support such a massive amount of elderly people especially since birth rates have been declining at a record rate in 2023 the number of newborns in Japan dropped to just 758,00 a decline of 5.1% when compared to just one year earlier this figure represents the lowest birth rate ever recorded in Japan the reason for this drop however can be a variety of things many young people suggest that they are simply not interested Ed in getting married and having kids and this is because of economic pressures High living costs and longer work hours safe to say most of the time the reason is financial then there's a shift in societal values where younger Generations prioritize personal growth and careers over starting a family the government did try a few policies to encourage child birth and child rearing but these efforts have largely failed Japan went through a lot still they remained the third largest economy in the world for a long time only recently have they dropped to fourth place after entering a technical recession it really is a testament to their resilience but they're nowhere near where they used to be before the economic disaster the giant bubble of the 1980s in Japan may have burst but the error's vibrancy still lingers in many people's memories especially the ones who are lucky enough to live through that moment in Japan it makes one wonder what could have been if the government had been more careful however it now serves as a lesson to all countries it's like a delicate balance of cherry blossoms blossoming in prosperity yet fleeting in The Winds of economic [Music] change all right so that's about it from me that was the story of the Japanese economic disaster the biggest economic bubble in recent history it's a topic of always found interesting and did want to cover so I'd love to hear your thoughts on this let us know in the comments section so my name is deogo and you've been watching cold fusion if this is your first video hope you enjoyed it and feel free to subscribe okay so I'll see you again soon for the next episode [Music] cold fusion it's new thinking [Music]