Bóc trần quả bom kinh tế Trung Quốc: Bong bóng bất động sản 300 tỷ USD và cái bẫy giảm phát
Từng được dự báo sẽ soán ngôi Mỹ để trở thành nền kinh tế số một thế giới vào năm 2024, Trung Quốc đang đối mặt với thử thách cam go nhất trong 40 năm đổi mới: Khủng hoảng nợ bất động sản Evergrande, nợ ngầm chính quyền địa phương 9.000 tỷ USD và nguy cơ rơi vào thập kỷ mất mát.
1. Sự kết thúc của một phép màu 40 năm
Suốt bốn thập kỷ kể từ chính sách cải cách mở cửa của Đặng Tiểu Bình năm 1978, nền kinh tế Trung Quốc đã tăng trưởng với tốc độ phi thường, bình quân gần 10% mỗi năm. Từ một quốc gia nông nghiệp nghèo nàn, Trung Quốc vươn lên thành “công xưởng của thế giới”, đưa hơn 800 triệu người thoát khỏi nghèo đói và xây dựng mạng lưới đường sắt cao tốc dài nhất hành tinh.
Vào năm 2014, hầu hết các tổ chức tài chính quốc tế danh tiếng như Goldman Sachs hay Trung tâm Nghiên cứu Kinh tế và Kinh doanh (CEBR) đều đồng thuận đưa ra một kịch bản: Trung Quốc chắc chắn sẽ vượt qua Hoa Kỳ để trở thành nền kinh tế lớn nhất thế giới vào khoảng năm 2024 đến 2028.
Thế nhưng, khi mốc thời gian đó đến gần, bức tranh kinh tế không diễn ra như dự đoán:
- Tăng trưởng GDP giảm tốc mạnh mẽ: Mức tăng trưởng hai con số trong quá khứ đã biến mất, nhường chỗ cho mức tăng vật lộn quanh ngưỡng 3-5%.
- Bong bóng bất động sản đổ vỡ: Tập đoàn bất động sản lớn nhất nước này – China Evergrande Group – chính thức vỡ nợ với khối nợ khổng lồ vượt quá 300 tỷ USD, kéo theo hàng chục nhà phát triển khác như Country Garden, Kaisa chìm vào khủng hoảng thanh khoản.
- Thất nghiệp thanh niên chạm mức kỷ lục: Tỷ lệ thất nghiệp của thanh niên thành thị (từ 16 đến 24 tuổi) vượt mốc 21.3% vào giữa năm 2023, buộc Cục Thống kê Quốc gia Trung Quốc phải ngừng công bố số liệu này ra công chúng.
- Bóng ma giảm phát (Deflation): Trong khi Mỹ và châu Âu vật lộn chống lạm phát cao, Trung Quốc lại rơi vào vòng xoáy giảm phát với chỉ số giá tiêu dùng (CPI) và chỉ số giá sản xuất (PPI) liên tục lao dốc.
Những gì đang diễn ra không phải là một chu kỳ suy thoái ngắn hạn thông thường, mà là dấu hiệu cho thấy mô hình tăng trưởng dựa trên thâm dụng vốn và nợ vay đã chạm trần giới hạn vật lý.
2. Mô hình tăng trưởng bằng nợ: Cơ chế nghiện bất động sản của chính quyền địa phương
Để hiểu nguyên nhân gốc rễ, cần nhìn thẳng vào cơ chế tài chính vận hành của các địa phương tại Trung Quốc trong 20 năm qua.
Tại Trung Quốc, ngành bất động sản và các chuỗi cung ứng liên quan (thép, xi măng, kính, nội thất) chiếm tới 25% đến 30% tổng GDP – một tỷ lệ mất cân đối cao gấp đôi so với các nền kinh tế phát triển (Mỹ chỉ khoảng 15-18%).
Cơ chế tạo tiền và GDP vận hành theo một vòng xoáy khép kín:
VÒNG XOÁY BẤT ĐỘNG SẢN & NỢ ĐỊA PHƯƠNG
┌────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ 1. CHÍNH QUYỀN ĐỊA PHƯƠNG: │
│ Bán quyền sử dụng đất cho các tập đoàn bất động sản │
│ (Nguồn thu từ đất chiếm tới 40% ngân sách địa phương) │
└───────────────────────────────────┬────────────────────────────────────┘
│ Tiền mua đất
▼
┌────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ 2. CÁC TẬP ĐOÀN BẤT ĐỘNG SẢN (Evergrande, Country Garden): │
│ Vay nợ ngân hàng + Phát hành trái phiếu quốc tế + │
│ Thu tiền bán nhà hình thành trong tương lai của dân (Presale) │
└───────────────────────────────────┬────────────────────────────────────┘
│ Thổi giá đất & giá nhà lên cao
▼
┌────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ 3. NGƯỜI DÂN TRUNG QUỐC: │
│ Dồn 70% tổng tài sản gia đình vào bất động sản │
│ (Vì thị trường chứng khoán yếu, kiểm soát vốn chặt chẽ) │
└───────────────────────────────────┬────────────────────────────────────┘
│ Vay thế chấp ngân hàng mua nhà
▼
┌────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ 4. LGFV (Công cụ tài chính ngầm của chính quyền địa phương): │
│ Vay nợ ước tính 9.000 tỷ USD xây dựng cầu đường, công viên, │
│ sân bay và các "thành phố ma" để làm đẹp chỉ số GDP │
└────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘Điểm chí mạng của mô hình này nằm ở hình thức bán nhà trên giấy (Presale): Các tập đoàn bất động sản thu 100% tiền mua nhà của người dân trước khi dự án hoàn thành, nhưng thay vì dùng tiền đó để xây nhà thì họ lại đem đi đặt cọc mua các lô đất mới để mở rộng quy mô.
Khi Bắc Kinh ban hành chính sách kiềm chế nợ “Ba lằn ranh đỏ” (Three Red Lines) vào năm 2020 nhằm chặn dòng vốn tín dụng vào các doanh nghiệp đòn bẩy cao, dòng tiền của các công ty bất động sản bị cắt đứt đột ngột. Hàng triệu căn hộ bị bỏ hoang dang dở, dẫn đến làn sóng người mua nhà đồng loạt đình công không trả nợ thế chấp ngân hàng (Mortgage Boycott) trên khắp cả nước.
3. Bốn gọng kìm bóp nghẹt đà tăng trưởng
Khủng hoảng bất động sản chỉ là phần nổi của tảng băng chìm. Nền kinh tế Trung Quốc đang bị bóp nghẹt bởi 4 gọng kìm cấu trúc đan xen:
- Hiệu ứng tài sản ngược (Reverse Wealth Effect): Hơn 70% tài sản ròng của các hộ gia đình Trung Quốc nằm ở gạch và vữa. Khi giá nhà tại các thành phố lớn sụt giảm 20-30%, người dân cảm thấy tài sản tích lũy cả đời của mình bị bốc hơi. Phản ứng tự nhiên là thắt lưng buộc bụng, cắt giảm chi tiêu tối đa và tăng gửi tiết kiệm phòng thân. Tiêu dùng nội địa tê liệt khiến nền kinh tế trượt dài vào giảm phát.
- Quả bom nợ LGFV 9.000 tỷ USD: Các công ty tài chính do chính quyền địa phương lập ra (LGFV) đã tích lũy khối nợ ngầm ước tính từ 9.000 đến 11.000 tỷ USD để xây dựng cơ sở hạ tầng. Khi nguồn thu từ bán đất sụt giảm tới 50%, nhiều địa phương không còn đủ tiền trả lãi vay, thậm chí phải cắt giảm lương giáo viên và nhân viên công ích.
- Cú sốc nhân khẩu học không thể đảo ngược: Di chứng của chính sách một con kéo dài suốt hơn 30 năm đang giáng một đòn nặng nề: Dân số Trung Quốc chính thức giảm liên tiếp hai năm, nhường vị trí quốc gia đông dân nhất thế giới cho Ấn Độ. Lực lượng lao động trong độ tuổi vàng đang thu hẹp hàng triệu người mỗi năm, trong khi làn sóng dân số già bùng nổ đặt gánh nặng khổng lồ lên hệ thống hưu trí và y tế.
- Sự đứt gãy chuỗi cung ứng và dòng vốn FDI: Căng thẳng địa chính trị với phương Tây cùng chiến lược “Giảm thiểu rủi ro” (De-risking) của các tập đoàn đa quốc gia đã kích hoạt làn sóng chuyển dịch nhà máy sang Việt Nam, Ấn Độ và Mexico. Dòng vốn đầu tư trực tiếp nước ngoài (FDI) vào Trung Quốc trong năm 2023 đã giảm xuống mức thấp nhất trong 30 năm.
4. Bốn bài học sâu sắc về quy luật phát triển kinh tế
Trường hợp của Trung Quốc cung cấp những bài học đắt giá về giới hạn của sự can thiệp nhà nước và mô hình tích lũy tư bản:
- Quy luật lợi suất giảm dần (Diminishing Returns) là bất khả kháng: Đổ tiền xây đường sắt cao tốc và chung cư trong giai đoạn đầu sẽ thúc đẩy kinh tế thần tốc. Nhưng khi đã thừa mứa hạ tầng, việc tiếp tục vay nợ để xây sân bay vắng người và thành phố không ai ở chỉ tạo ra nợ xấu chứ không tạo thêm năng suất lao động thực tế.
- Không thể chuyển sang nền kinh tế tiêu dùng nếu người dân thiếu lưới an sinh: Muốn người dân mở hầu bao chi tiêu thay vì gửi tiết kiệm, chính phủ phải cung cấp một hệ thống y tế, bảo hiểm thất nghiệp và giáo dục công đủ tin cậy. Nếu chi phí khám chữa bệnh và dưỡng già vẫn là gánh nặng tự thân, người dân sẽ luôn tích lũy tiền mặt dự phòng.
- Thanh niên là thước đo sức khỏe tinh thần của một xã hội: Hiện tượng thanh niên trí thức Trung Quốc từ bỏ cạnh tranh khốc liệt để “nằm yên” (Tang Ping - Lying flat) hay “buông xuôi” (Bailan) là phản ứng phản kháng thụ động trước tình trạng giá nhà trên trời và cơ hội thăng tiến xã hội bị đóng băng.
- Minh bạch số liệu là điều kiện tiên quyết của niềm tin thị trường: Việc ngừng công bố các số liệu kinh tế nhạy cảm (như tỷ lệ thất nghiệp thanh niên) không giải quyết được vấn đề mà chỉ làm xói mòn niềm tin của các nhà đầu tư quốc tế và cộng đồng doanh nghiệp trong nước.
📜 Xem toàn bộ transcript gốc tiếng Anh (4,059 từ)
Văn bản phụ đề nguyên bản tiếng Anh trích xuất trực tiếp từ video của ColdFusion phục vụ tra cứu và đối chiếu:
hi welcome to another episode of Cold Fusion only a couple of years ago China was on the path to overtaking the United States and becoming the world's largest economy in 2014 many were speculating that this could happen as soon as 2024 dubbed by many as an economic Miracle China Grew From a third world country to a global superpower in just a matter of a few decades few could foresee the effects that the economic reform in the late 1970s would have on the developing country soon the lists of the largest companies in the world began to feature more and more Chinese Enterprises globally the country was one of the most important trade Partners fueling globalization on a scale never seen before and with that power came influence fast forward a few years and China finds itself in a myriad of problems both economic and political a catastrophic zero covered policy real estate debt crisis external infrastructure issues internal debt issues a mini Revolt of the youth and the slowing down of the economy are just some of the things that have been plaguing the nation recently the results of these issues threaten the very power structures of the country so how did China get here and what are the consequences for the country and the world as a whole so get comfortable buckle up and get ready for a wild ride [Music] let's begin by understanding the most talked about issue the real estate bubble the main growth both for the Chinese economy as well as the housing market began in 1979 with economic reform From Here China opened up to the rest of the world massive civilian migration from rural locations to main city hubs ensued as people look to improve their quality of life hundreds of millions of sons and particularly Daughters of Chinese farmers who move from the farm where they were earning really the same as they were earning a thousand years ago in Chinese history absolute subsistence wages they traveled four or five hours to the local city and there they began working in the big factories the workshop of the world due to that in four decades China went from a mostly rural population to a country where two-thirds of the entire population lives in major city hubs on top of relocations a cultural element also boosted the sales of housing owning real estate was considered a source of financial stability for a family as well as a prerequisite for marriage out of the one child policy and the Chinese preferring male heirs they are 35 million more men than women in China that creates intense competition for brides with men often having to prove their material worth this often means owning a home this led to entire families and their friends pooling money to contribute to the purchase of a house for their relatives why you might ask because the prices of Apartments have gotten so out of control that according to the financial times housing affordability in China is among the worst in the world taking into account living expenses it would take the average earner 50 years to buy an apartment this Collective pooling of money is a major difference between the Chinese property market and the West little inventory and slow development combined with rapid growth led to Major supply issues thus Prices rose and affordable housing became an issue for local governments the solution was to issue loans to property development companies as well as easing the credit lending standards to individuals due to these factors the Chinese real estate market became a rocket ship and it fueled massive economic growth some companies like the infamous evergrant took full advantage of the situation and expanded aggressively aided in a large part by the availability of cheap credit evergrand became so large that they even built a theme park and purchased a soccer team with some of the money the theme park is now abandoned you'll see why shortly but here's how it looks like now it really is a sad waste of money time and resources [Music] foreign [Music] many of these property institutions quickly became the largest in the country and many expanded projects into overseas markets commercial housing sales reached 2.7 trillion dollars in 2020. in China today the general population has about 70 percent of their total wealth stored in the real estate market let me repeat that 70 of their total wealth is stored in the real estate market however the supply of housing was still short in part due to speculation it was commonplace to purchase a second or third home as an investment since it was considered wise and a stable use of savings seeing the never-ending demand developers created an ingenious system to further fuel expansion these were based on two key pillars first they started to finance their operations with foreign debt the appetite for Chinese debt and Equity was increasing around the world since their massive growth brought very attractive yields secondly developers created pre-sale options for buyers that quickly became the norm in the country in it home buyers would give money to Developers for a home that has yet to be built all they had was a promise that once it was finished it would be theirs the whole construction period would take about two to three years usually and people will start uh paying their mortgage way before the completion of the project years even years or maybe yeah over a year over a year and a half in the past it wasn't seen as a risky business because as I said and people would not expect developers cannot complete their home at a large scale not like now while this made sense for both sides it quickly escalated with loose regulations around how much money the property developers needed to keep they started to game the system to their advantage by obtaining pre-sales they were able to start new projects without finishing the old ones once the new projects yielded new pre-sales they would use some of that money to finance the actual construction while the rest went to new projects and so on in essence they created a Ponzi scheme that relied 100 on the stable and Perpetual growth of the housing market however once the influx of people to major cities started to slow down from 4.1 to 1996 to 2.1 percent in 2020 the scheme started to fall apart with a Slowdown in pre-sales developers started to rely more and more on Banks and foreign debt to keep expanding sometimes the debt payment was too large to pay with an operating income so they used further debt to finance their obligations it all continued for some time but soon the Chinese authorities entered the scheme in August of 2020 the Chinese government implemented the three red lines policy each line represents a debt ratio that the companies had to respect if not their ability to contract more liabilities was severely hampered developers with extreme amounts of debt such as evergrant crossed all three lines meaning that they were not able to increase their liabilities any further and since evergrant used debt to finance old liabilities it was not long before they started to run into liquidity troubles first they failed to repay the wealth managers who had a direct investment in the company and this provoked a large Revolt by wealth managers and investors who went to their headquarters to protest in September 2021 there was a hugely crucial moment over Grand missed payments on wealth management products the wealth management Market in China as well Ordinary People can put their savings and the money is usually going into real estate often to companies like Evergreen and these people who had invested hadn't got their money back they descended on the headquarters of overground in xinjiang we don't know where to get our money and now we we go to Shenzhen government and nobody help us this was the point of which went from it might be a crisis to well it probably is a crisis soon after evergrant started to fail on its payments of dollar bonds and these Bonds were sold to the Western world and they weren't the only property company in trouble property developer caser missed a 400 million Bond payment in November of 2021. and in January of 2022 shimayo group defaulted on a 101 million dollar loan and most recently The Uso group requested to defer a payment of offshore bonds worth 582 million this resulted in a large loss of confidence in the Chinese housing and bond market both internally and externally this accumulated in mortgage strikes by distinguished buyers who were paying their monthly bills without seeing any progress on their purchase property to date more than 320 groups of homeowners are believed to be refusing to pay their mortgage loans [Applause] Chinese are home buyers as property developers hold construction on their homes since July Home Buyers Say in over 100 cities across China have declared a mortgage boycott just like Tim many home buyers are desperate some have taken to Street demonstrations but these have been quickly quashed with officials citing covet concerns backed into a corner home buyers that have threatened to stop payments on their mortgage in over 300 projects the value of these loans is estimated to be worth between 150 and 300 billion dollars the Chinese government has since slightly relaxed the rules and on top of that the Chinese Central Bank has cut interest rates in an attempt to revive the credit and housing markets we'll have to see what happens with this it's not clear if the situation will subside or if more property developers go unsolvent causing civil unrest on top of all of this real estate related activities represent close to 30 percent of total Chinese yearly GDP if the property sectors go under there's going to be a ripple effect it's a risk to Banks local governments and the stability of China while all of that might sound bad enough other debt issues are starting to rear their ugly head there's been many unprofitable and huge debt-ridden infrastructure projects one famous case is the super speed railroad the infrastructure project began after the 2008 financial crisis as an attempt to pump money into the economy and create employment opportunities it was a classic fiscal policy boost that worked to Perfection the project was a major success offering employment to millions and single-handedly pushed some industry sectors such as steel and concrete out of default this was in large part why China avoided the turmoil that most other countries faced during the 2008 crisis while it did save the economy from recession the problems started right after construction finished since the railway connected secondary locations and not main destinations the demand was not always there and to add to this the ticket prices were Out Of Reach for the majority of the population the lack of Revenue may not have been an issue however this project was funded by massive amounts of debt by Major Banks local governments as well as some publicly issued bonds from 2015 up to this day the interest alone on these payments have surpassed the operating income of the project that's right the interest on the debt has been more than the company's income as of 2021 their total liabilities of 5.9 trillion Yuan or 900 billion dollars in other words five percent of the Chinese GDP the majority of these liabilities are bonds which were sold to State Banks thanks to the zero covered lockdowns the rail infrastructure is being used even less as a response the Chinese government announced an economic stimulus to lift the covert hit economy this included allowing the China Railway to issue another 300 billion yuan in the form of Railway construction bonds the doubling down on an already unprofitable Venture it seems like China is putting appearances above functionality and profitability a path that can lead to major issues if not addressed accordingly due to massive amounts of debt expansion profit motives and poor planning there are numerous ghost cities in China these are areas of vast amounts of infrastructure and property that virtually remains unoccupied the financial times explains the ratio of empty apartments in China could range between 10 percent and as high as 40 or even 50 percent in some small cities there are enough empty homes in China right now to house about 90 million people greater than the population of Germany or the UK newer developments were built quite quickly without a lot of consideration for yeah the logistics I've traveled to many parts of China where you go to a suburb and suddenly you see this Forest of apartment blogs carry on for five ten minutes in your taxi and you're still going through apartment block after apartment block with nobody in them I visited one of the most more famous ghost cities odos in the middle of the desert very far away from anything it was quite strange because it's not like there's necessarily jobs there foreign to add to the internal debt issues China is also struggling with external infrastructure projects the grand belt and Road initiative is threatening to turn out to be one of the most unprofitable Global projects of all time the initiative is a large investment into more than 100 countries it's China's ambitious attempt at growing Global influence as well as creating Global links to China in theory strengthening its import export markets the thing is though investment in Risky countries is just that risky and if not calculated properly these Investments can turn out to be very unprofitable Ventures in just 2020 and 2021 China has had to renegotiate more than 52 billion dollars in debt and a lot of the countries that China deals with are unwilling or unable to pay the Belson Road initiative has become so large that China has become the world's largest source of development credit overtaking the World Bank as well as the IMF considering that this project is political in nature no matter how unprofitable the state government is likely to keep financing it China could gain Untold geopolitical leverage but it comes with the risk of a catastrophic outcome both for the financial stability of China as well as causing a political debacle due to its involvement in other countries foreign affairs [Music] as if debt issues both on the internal and external front are not enough the Chinese government continues to support a zero covert policy to this day the plan on paper was to eliminate the disease the government was to be seen as competent and to be able to deal with whatever came its way and it worked for some time as of today according to the official statistics the death toll from the virus in China stands at little over five thousand while the US is over 1 million no matter how staged these numbers might be the authorities could point to this low number as a rationale for lockdowns while the rest of the world is moving on due to herd immunity China on the other hand can't do so they've had no natural immunity the latest mandate is for every major city to have a test site like this within 15 minutes walk of every resident it looks like they're going to become a permanent fixture on the streets and having a negative result will be required for going to school work shopping or eating out there will be no living with the virus in China it is pursuing a pandemic victory at all costs once they announced the zero covert policy and how it could go on for more than five years the lockdown's perception in the general population's eyes quickly changed people are now protesting lockdowns in what can only be described as a dystopian nightmare thank you however even if the state wanted to going back on its policies now would be a complete disaster both on a humanitarian and political scale according to shanghai's Fudan University the death toll could reach more than one million people and it would be an admission of failure on the part of State leadership completely unacceptable as the government is preparing for its 20th party Congress where current president Xi Jinping will go on for his third consecutive term as party leader thus having a Slowdown of the economy and popular discontent seemed to be no matter how wrong the only viable path for the state authorities moving forward if they backtrack its weakness and saving face is a big part of Chinese culture and the government must showcase their superiority no matter how staged it might seem to their Western counterparts what does this mean for the economy well to start a massive decline in internal demand and increasing employment especially among the Young for educated young people one-fifth of themselves find themselves jobless at the time of recording on the external front the zero covert policy has been one of the main issues fleeting into the global recession there's been a weakening of confidence of foreign businesses that rely on China for exports and imports the most extreme example is Apple who is moving some of their manufacturing of the iPhone 14 to rival India and we've done a full episode on this story the economic and political issues are not the only problems for the state government either increasing unemployment among the young and educated is quickly on the rise climbing to a record 20 in July of this year this is mainly due to the slowing down of the economy and the shrinking opportunities that come with it in my 2021 episode on the great resignation we touched on the popular online movement called Tang ping or lie flat basically it was an online movement of Youth that decided to stop playing the rat race stop climbing that corporate ladder and just to take things more slowly but now in 2022 this has evolved into something new a more extreme movement known as Bailon or to let it rot these youth have completely decided to give up on the system and are just doing the bare minimum to get by it's a complete shock to the older generation of Chinese who have never seen anything like this in their lifetime the byline youth believe that there's nothing to be gained by working hard and putting in extra effort isn't going to result in reward it didn't take long for the Chinese government to take notice in May of 2022 president Xi Jinping in a speech to the entire nation emphasized the importance of young people and their contributions to the country as a whole stating that quote China's hopes lie in youth reducing inequality and improving opportunities has been their main priority for some time and yet the measures taken such as cracking down on big Tech and banning private school tutoring so far have not helped the situation much [Music] so the preceding was a brief summary of what's been going on in China there was plenty that wasn't said we didn't even get to the Rural Bank runs we're around 400 000 people aren't able to access their life savings but you get the idea so other click bait titles on YouTube true is China going to implode well the answer is more complicated than that it seems clear that China is putting its political agenda in front of Economic and humanitarian situations the stubbornness of the ruling class has caused China to be in an uncomfortable position a seemingly Unstoppable Nation suddenly has major cracks appearing in multiple places cracks that need to be patched with more than a Band-Aid solution the major threat across all of these topics covered is a loss of confidence by its people in the state government and getting that confidence back will be a difficult challenge perhaps the most likely outcome may be a slow grinding recession and political upheaval in the coming years But ultimately it's too complicated of an analysis for anyone to give a definite answer but there's definitely more work that needs to be done to keep things from escalating further and for the people to trust their government again one thing is sure the next few years for China carry a lot of risk and whether things get a lot worse or not depends on how the situation is handled by the Chinese government but what about the rest of the world well for the rest of the world these problems in China will certainly have major Ripple effects especially for those who rely directly on the import export Market of China we can expect the inflationary Trend to continue as Chinese Supply diminishes for the United States this means 20 of the total Imports can be affected on top of that the growing deglobalization Trend will make prices higher as more countries bet on local production and that means less cheap labor for some economies like Australia where I'm from we might be in a lot of trouble because Australia's exports to China account for about 65 percent of total trade that's a massive exposure risk and as most Australians would know we don't really have that many other trading partners that could back up such a loss specific Industries will also see major setbacks case in point is the EV battery sector the Chinese lithium-ion Global battery production was 76 while there are constant efforts by the European and U.S governments to increase their production the Stark truth is that China is a massive trading partner that can't be replaced on short notice lastly it's also important to mention the investment exposure that many countries have to Chinese debt and equities this includes many investment firms in Europe and the us not to mention all the funds that have suffered losses from the numerous delisting of Chinese equities over the past few months on top of that China's slowdown could mean more difficulty for the US to issue debt since China is the second largest holder of U.S treasuries on the positive side less demand for fuel China Imports 80 of its needs and is going to put some downward pressure on prices giving a little help to the energy crisis now and a small downward force on the input costs on basically every good produced overall the interconnectedness between Global markets has been the engine of growth for some time both in Achilles heel and the key to economic prosperity of this Century a recession in one major economy means a global slowdown for the rest of the world it will be very interesting to witness the changes that happen will this change global trading in the future will globalization continue to be a trend or after this will countries tend to look more Inward and will production be more localized whether it's the Outlook of China or the global economy as a whole only time will tell so what do you guys think feel free to discuss in the comments section below before I go just one final note in the last episode about the UK economy there are a lot of comments gloating about the situation and rejoicing I think it's worth noting that a distinction should be made between a nation's government and the innocent civilians who don't deserve to suffer when things start going wrong this also applies to the citizens of China it's never nice to see innocent people suffer I just thought I'd make that clear if you did like this episode feel free to take a look around the channel there's plenty of interesting topics here on Cold Fusion whether you're into science technology or business and finance anyway thanks for watching my name is [ __ ] and you've been watching cold fusion and I'll see you again soon for the next episode cheers guys have a good [Music] I thought [Music] I'll make it [Music] cold fusion it's me thinking